Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 29.668842 33.103309 37.066189 42.051174 48.266651 55.924292 66.352819
2025-03-23 24.712422 28.974052 34.350034 41.884909 52.653189 68.408745 95.468879
2025-03-30 21.532504 26.123800 32.296273 41.695611 56.759655 82.701553 140.678674
2025-04-06 19.036628 23.634356 30.093434 40.542101 58.862214 95.238883 202.736037
2025-04-13 18.026276 22.959443 30.244020 42.906711 67.812116 128.555015 435.857064
2025-04-20 16.626814 21.503366 28.926629 42.434792 71.166650 153.340123 935.854333
2025-04-27 15.645008 20.529087 28.184381 42.763232 76.433118 192.784365 5736.611093
2025-05-04 14.855317 19.746992 27.619899 43.264631 82.464013 250.574859 NaN
2025-05-11 14.122377 18.971497 26.947832 43.379194 87.659516 325.621119 NaN
2025-05-18 13.367726 18.089869 25.977138 42.650678 90.109628 400.690695 NaN
2025-05-25 12.822708 17.499801 25.452234 42.787894 95.593499 557.668801 NaN
2025-06-01 12.274994 16.860785 24.765486 42.417040 99.254069 766.131216 NaN
2025-06-08 11.740800 16.214928 24.017186 41.805076 101.994386 1081.905845 NaN
2025-06-15 11.266185 15.639043 23.348709 41.278129 105.005891 1691.831160 NaN
2025-06-22 10.855250 15.145275 22.792245 40.937891 108.858100 3357.983336 NaN
2025-06-29 10.391762 14.534653 21.959217 39.754294 108.144337 5521.609600 NaN
2025-07-06 10.308054 14.573469 22.399321 42.010279 127.316943 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 9.972842 14.150734 21.877419 41.541402 131.074517 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 9.731558 13.880682 21.643389 41.852480 140.524427 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 9.520790 13.652878 21.476336 42.333489 152.329938 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 9.293935 13.383830 21.200790 42.442813 162.018617 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 9.019389 13.015412 20.688611 41.739747 164.302928 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 8.824242 12.783105 20.451486 41.871883 175.092072 NaN NaN